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The Road NOT Taken · In my own words

Two Roads

“Two roads diverged in a yellow wood…”— Robert Frost, 1916

Lawmakers’ failure to create Supercharged Social Security in 1935 was – arguably – their most expensive 20th-century mistake. Failure to create Supercharged Social Security ASAP would be their biggest 21st-century mistake!

Walk both roadsUse our Calculator

The Road NOT Taken · Supercharged Social Security

The Road we’re stuck on · OASI

At a glance

The road we’re stuck on vs. “The Road Not Taken”

In 1935, Social Security’s founders came to a fork in the road. They took OASI (Old-Age and Survivors Insurance, the retirement part of legacy Social Security). It runs on pay-as-you-go funding (today’s workers’ taxes pay today’s retirees; nothing is saved up to grow), and it’s paid for with FICA (the Social Security tax taken out of every paycheck). Supercharged Social Security was “The Road Not Taken.”

Compared
The Road NOT TakenSupercharged Social Security, from 1935
The Road we’re stuck on OASI, from 1937
Cost, cumulative thru 2025
The Road NOT Taken: $1.0 Tr.
The road we’re stuck on: $25.3 Tr.
Assets, year-end 2025
The Road NOT Taken: $26.8 Tr.
The road we’re stuck on: $2.34 Tr. (checked against SSA data)
With no new money in, benefits run out
The Road NOT Taken: 2130s
The road we’re stuck on: mid-'27 (checked against SSA data)
Benefits
The Road NOT Taken: $147 Tr. thru 2025$1,066 Tr. thru the run-out dates
The road we’re stuck on: $21.7 Tr. netthru 2025
How it's funded
The Road NOT Taken: Invested at birth
The road we’re stuck on: Pay-as-you-go
Invested in
The Road NOT Taken: A stock index fund (one fund that owns a slice of every U.S. company). Corporate America's dividends pay in.
The road we’re stuck on: Government bonds. The interest comes from taxes.
FICA
The Road NOT Taken: Could have declined & vanished by about 1997
The road we’re stuck on: Rises year after year
A 1937 gallon of gas, tied to its cost, in 2026
The Road NOT Taken: $4.95
The road we’re stuck on: $65.19 (checked against SSA data) to $94.10 (checked against SSA data)

= checks out against SSA’s own data. Hover or focus a marked figure for its source.

Mile 1 · The cost

Supercharged Social Security could have saved YOU and ALL Americans $24 Trillion vs. OASI – and counting.

Exhibit 1 · What each road cost

Our Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund’s exorbitant cost hurts YOU!

But that was “The Road Not Taken” in 1935.

Each bundle = $1 Trillion

“Exorbitant”? Pay-as-you-go funding & govt. bond investment made OASI cost $24+ Trillion MORE than Supercharged Social Security.
Cumulative costs: 1935–2025 for Supercharged Social Security, 1937–2025 for OASI.
See the numbers
Cumulative cost of each road, thru 2025, in trillions of dollars
RoadCumulative cost thru 2025
The Road NOT Taken: cost of Supercharged Social Security minimum benefit, 1935–2025$1.0 Tr.
The road we're stuck on: OASI cost, 1937–2025$25.3 Tr.
Difference$24+ Trillion

Mile 2 · The tolls

Gas is expensive? It’s not.

Pundits, politicians & bureaucrats have conned people into believing gas is expensive. It’s not. That claim helps distract people from the high cost of FICA.

Government has some control over gas prices by how much they tax it. If not for politics, gas prices COULD have been tied to FICA (LOL). But it’s easier to sneak a once-a-year cost increase on FICA, year after year, by raising the taxable base & the tax rates.

Most of the time since 1937 gas prices have increased less than CPI-U (the government’s main measure of inflation). And gas is a bargain compared to its cost in most other countries, which tax it heavier. But here it’s a super bargain compared to FICA costs, as the chart shows.

The chart also shows that government could hold FICA increases down by adopting Supercharged Social Security. That would make OASI FICA decline & vanish as Supercharged Social Security is phased in over time.

Exhibit 2 · Gas vs FICA

“The Road NOT Taken” vs. the road taken by Social Security’s founders: what YOU’d pay for gas if founders had tied gas price to FICA’s exorbitant cost

YOU & your employers should be outraged by rapidly rising tolls!

In 2026, a gallon of gas tied to OASDI + HI FICA would cost $94.10.
Tie the gallon to:
Gas cost $0.20 a gallon in 1937. For each $0.20 in 1937, gas in 2026 would cost $4.95 if it was tied to the Supercharged Social Security at-birth cost. For “the road taken,” $65.19 (checked against SSA data) for OASI FICA, $76.26 (checked against SSA data) for OASDI FICA & $94.10 (checked against SSA data) for OASDI + HI FICA.How the FICA lines are figured: take the most a worker & employer paid together that year (on wages at the taxable maximum), divide by 1937’s $60, and multiply by 20¢. OASI is retirement; OASDI adds Disability; HI is Medicare’s Hospital Insurance. The OASDI lines dip for the 2011–12 payroll-tax holiday; the OASI line dips for 2016–18, when part of its tax was moved to Disability. The Supercharged Social Security line is my at-birth cost per newborn: $250 in 1935, raised with inflation.
Source: SSA tax rates and contribution & benefit base, 1937–2026 · R-079–R-081
See the numbers
What one gallon of 1937 gas would cost each year, tied to each cost
YearSupercharged Social Security at-birth costOASI FICAOASDI FICAOASDI + HI FICA
1937$0.20$0.20——
1938$0.20$0.20——
1939$0.20$0.20——
1940$0.20$0.20——
1941$0.22$0.20——
1942$0.24$0.20——
1943$0.25$0.20——
1944$0.26$0.20——
1945$0.26$0.20——
1946$0.31$0.20——
1947$0.34$0.20——
1948$0.35$0.20——
1949$0.35$0.20——
1950$0.37$0.30——
1951$0.39$0.36——
1952$0.39$0.36——
1953$0.39$0.36——
1954$0.39$0.48——
1955$0.39$0.56——
1956$0.41$0.56——
1957$0.42$0.56$0.63—
1958$0.43$0.56$0.63—
1959$0.43$0.72$0.80—
1960$0.44$0.88$0.96—
1961$0.44$0.88$0.96—
1962$0.45$0.92$1.00—
1963$0.45$1.08$1.16—
1964$0.46$1.08$1.16—
1965$0.47$1.08$1.16—
1966$0.48$1.54$1.69$1.85
1967$0.50$1.56$1.72$1.94
1968$0.52$1.73$1.98$2.29
1969$0.55$1.94$2.18$2.50
1970$0.58$1.90$2.18$2.50
1971$0.60$2.11$2.39$2.70
1972$0.62$2.43$2.76$3.12
1973$0.68$3.10$3.49$4.21
1974$0.76$3.85$4.36$5.15
1975$0.82$4.11$4.65$5.50
1976$0.85$4.46$5.05$5.97
1977$0.91$4.81$5.45$6.44
1978$0.99$5.04$5.96$7.14
1979$1.13$6.61$7.76$9.36
1980$1.27$7.80$8.77$10.58
1981$1.38$9.31$10.59$13.17
1982$1.43$9.88$11.66$14.47
1983$1.49$11.36$12.85$15.95
1984$1.55$13.10$13.99$17.26
1985$1.60$13.73$15.05$18.61
1986$1.62$14.56$15.96$20.02
1987$1.69$15.18$16.64$20.88
1988$1.77$16.59$18.18$22.53
1989$1.85$17.70$19.39$24.03
1990$1.96$19.15$21.20$26.16
1991$2.02$19.94$22.07$27.23
1992$2.08$20.72$22.94$28.31
1993$2.14$21.50$23.81$29.38
1994$2.20$21.25$25.05$30.91
1995$2.25$21.46$25.30$31.21
1996$2.33$21.99$25.92$31.98
1997$2.37$23.33$27.03$33.35
1998$2.41$24.40$28.27$34.88
1999$2.47$25.89$30.01$37.03
2000$2.55$26.92$31.50$38.86
2001$2.59$28.41$33.23$41.00
2002$2.66$30.00$35.09$43.30
2003$2.71$30.74$35.96$44.37
2004$2.79$31.06$36.33$44.83
2005$2.89$31.80$37.20$45.90
2006$2.96$33.28$38.94$48.04
2007$3.08$34.45$40.30$49.73
2008$3.09$36.04$42.16$52.02
2009$3.17$37.74$44.14$54.47
2010$3.22$37.74$44.14$54.47
2011$3.31$37.74$37.02$47.35
2012$3.37$38.90$38.17$48.81
2013$3.42$40.17$47.00$57.99
2014$3.45$41.34$48.36$59.67
2015$3.47$41.87$48.98$60.44
2016$3.54$39.62$48.98$60.44
2017$3.62$42.53$52.58$64.87
2018$3.69$42.93$53.07$65.48
2019$3.77$46.96$54.93$67.78
2020$3.83$48.65$56.92$70.23
2021$4.10$50.46$59.02$72.83
2022$4.38$51.94$60.76$74.97
2023$4.53$56.60$66.22$81.70
2024$4.66$59.57$69.69$85.99
2025$4.83$62.22$72.79$89.81
2026$4.95$65.19$76.26$94.10

Mile 3 · What's left

What each road left in the tank

Exhibit 3 · What each road left in the tank

Assets accumulated thru 2025 and benefits those assets could pay

With no new money from exorbitant OASI taxes, no-growth OASI benefits could end in less than THREE YEARS.

Assets, year-end 2025

Benefits those assets could pay

How long each road runs, with no new money in

With no new money in, OASI benefits could stop in less than three years. For Supercharged Social Security? In 120 years.

When Congress replaces OASI with Supercharged Social Security, they could jump-start the world’s biggest economic boom! Supercharged Social Security could phase out elder poverty, taxes for seniors’ welfare, and retirement FICA. It could jump-start the world’s BIGGEST-EVER tax cut, provide a low-cost model for creating “Medicare For All,” and more!
OASI assets and the mid-’27 run-out check out against SSA’s own trust-fund table (Table 4a1, 2025 row) · R-082, R-083
See the numbers
Assets at year-end 2025, the benefits they could pay, and when they run out
RoadAssets, year-end 2025Benefits those assets could payRun out
The Road NOT Taken (Supercharged Social Security)$26.8 Tr.$1,066 Tr.2130s
The road we're stuck on (OASI)$2.34 Tr. (checked against SSA data)$2.34 Tr.mid-'27 (checked against SSA data)

Mile 4 · What we lost

What each road paid YOU — and what we lost

Exhibit 4 · What each road paid out

We designed Supercharged Social Security to provide retirement benefits MUCH greater than OASI’s, not just for you, but for ALL Americans.

But Supercharged Social Security was “The Road Not Taken.”

For just $1.0 Tr. thru 2025, Supercharged Social Security could have saved us $24 Tr. AND improved net retirement benefits by $125 Trillion. Instead, beneficiaries got $7.2 Trillion LESS than OASI’s huge revealed & hidden costs!
Cumulative benefits paid from money in, thru 2025.
See the numbers
Cumulative benefits thru 2025, in trillions of dollars
RoadCumulative benefits thru 2025
Supercharged Social Security benefits forgone$147 Tr.
OASI net benefits we got$21.7 Tr.

Exhibit 5 · The opportunity cost

“Opportunity cost” of choosing OASI instead of Supercharged Social Security in 1935? $1,066 TRILLION!

But Supercharged Social Security was “The Road Not Taken.”

Each square = $1 Trillion. OASI’s squares are the small block at the lower right.

But if Supercharged Social Security had begun in 1935 it could have banished elder poverty & OASI FICA for workers & employers by about 1997! Plus tax savings from elder poverty & FICA phase-out (not shown) could have been hundreds of trillions more!
Benefits payable from money paid in — startup thru 2025, counted thru each road's run-out date.
See the numbers
Benefits payable from money paid in, thru each road's run-out date, in trillions of dollars
RoadCumulative benefits, thru run-out dates
Supercharged Social Security cum. benefits denied$1,066 Tr.
OASI net benefits$21.7 Tr.

Mile 5 · One birth year

What would ONE birth year have gotten?

For future Supercharged Social Security benefits, Exhibit 3 shows cumulative total benefits of $1,066 Tr. for all Americans born thru 2025. Now take just one birth year.

One birth year · a certificate

For just the 1963 newborns…

  1. Born in 1963newborns4.167 million
  2. At each birthfor each newborn$581.47
  3. Invested in their birth yearin total$2.42 Tr.
  4. By 2025 (age 62)based on actual market history$1.27 Tr.
  5. Over an estimated life expectancy of 21 yearsSupercharged Social Security total lifetime benefits$7.9 Tr.

So for just the 1963 newborns, that total would have been worth more than 1/3 of all the net OASI’s benefits from 1937 thru 2025, at a tiny fraction of OASI’s cost.

Mile 6 · Taxes & welfare

The world’s biggest tax cut

about $1.7 Tr.

The entire Social Security system (retirement + Disability + Medicare) cost about $1.7 Tr. in 2025.

$1.7-$1.8 Tr.

For 2024, the Cato Institute says total U.S. means-tested fed, state & local welfare (aid paid only to people under an income limit) was (coincidentally) also a huge $1.7-$1.8 Tr.

The Road NOT Taken · Supercharged Social Security

  1. 1935If Supercharged Social Security had begun in 1935…
  2. BEFORE 1997Working-aged people would have seen OASI FICA decline & vanish, probably BEFORE 1997.
  3. About 1997Taxes for elder welfare could have declined & vanished completely by around 1997.

The road we're stuck on · OASI

  1. 1937Payroll tax withholding began.
  2. Every year sinceA once-a-year cost increase on FICA, year after year, by raising the taxable base & the tax rates.

A substantial portion of welfare taxes is for elder welfare. With Supercharged Social Security those taxes could have declined & vanished completely by around 1997.

Another portion of welfare cost is for the working-aged people who would have seen OASI FICA decline & vanish, probably BEFORE 1997. As a result, working-age poverty & related taxes could have declined significantly.

Visible Social Security costs, & hidden costs from “phantom FICA income” (pay you never see, but still pay income tax on), etc. added to the need for taxes to pay for welfare that Supercharged Social Security was not allowed to eliminate.

Supercharged Social Security could create the world’s biggest tax cut. That would come from:

  1. Phasing out OASI FICA taxes
  2. plus reducing taxes for welfare.
  3. Also, because interest Social Security collects on its government bonds comes from taxes, that would be replaced by corporate America’s dividends on its stock index fund at no cost to taxpayers.

Mile 7 · A truth-based fable

My tale begins at birth.

In the maternity ward, a man said to my folks, “I’m from Social Security. We’re testing a new plan. Supercharged Social Security. It’ll invest for Junior in a stock-market index, reinvest dividends, and hold for retirement.”

My mom said, “Who’ll pay?”

The man said, “You two. This month. Total cost for Minimum benefits: $332. For Supercharged Social Security Super benefits: $940. Benefits could start at 60. Guaranteed! Or start later, for even better benefits.”

My parents chose Supercharged Social Security “Super benefits.” They loved me — and they were smart.

Spoiler alert

Market history shows, from my birth month, $940 in a market-indexed pension could have grown to $1 mil. in 60 years. That could have mushroomed to $8.5 mil. by year-end 2025! For ALL newborns beginning 1935, Supercharged Social Security would have been virtually risk free.

Back to the fable. What would Supercharged Social Security mean for me? Fast forward to age 60. My starting Supercharged Social Security benefit: $62,000 a year, with COLAs (yearly cost-of-living raises) to follow. (Minimum, from $332 at birth? $21.9k to start.)

I had thought my friends’ FICA could put them on Easy Street. But their legacy benefits — at 62 — would be a QUARTER of mine — at 60. Huge difference! Unlike them, I’d NEVER pay a penny of FICA! But they & their employers would have paid $100,000, combined. Imagine!

I can laugh now.

But long before retirement, I had feared my parents’ $940 was “at-risk.” Nope.

History shows market risk from annual investment in an Supercharged Social Security-type large-stock index since 1814 always declined & vanished after 14 years — or less.

Annualized return by holding period, 1871–2026
EVERY ROLLING JAN→JAN WINDOW · NOMINAL TOTAL RETURN
DERIVED-CALCR-039
Single years ranged from −44.26% to +56.66%. Stretch the window and the floor rises: the worst 20-year run still returned +3.07% a year (1929–49), the worst 30-year +5.08%, the worst 40-year +5.45%. In real (inflation-adjusted) terms the worst 20-year window was +0.69% a year (1962–82) — thinner, but still never negative.
Source: Robert J. Shiller dataset (shillerdata.com), pinned snapshot 2026-08-06 — the same data the calculator runs on. R-039

On the 1871-onward record this site runs on, the worst 10-year window still lost money. No 20-year window ever did: the worst returned +3.07% a year.

The story? A mere fable. But my $62,000-a-year pension? Plus COLAs? And NO FICA? Stock-market history says Supercharged Social Security COULD have made that happen. With virtually ZERO risk!

The fable, in 30 seconds.

Where would YOU be if lawmakers had created a ZERO “risk” plan like Supercharged Social Security — for ALL of us?

Find out. It’s long past time to take “The Road Not Taken.”

Use our CalculatorRead the 12 steps

The moral?

German philosopher Hegel said:

History teaches us that man learns nothing from history.

Sadly, that’s why Social Security’s brain trust failed to create Supercharged Social Security.

Two things this does NOT mean.

First: this is NOT privatization. Junior’s pension is a share of one pooled Supercharged Social Security Trust Fund — the same fund your grandparents paid into. Social Security would manage it. Not YOU. It’s that simple. Second: today’s Social Security is not about to vanish.

2033
The OASI trust fund is depleted in 2033
Source: 2025 Trustees Report via CRS IF13045 v.5 (congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/PDF/IF13045/IF13045.5.pdf) · R-001
81%
About 81 cents of every scheduled dollar keeps flowing
Source: Same CRS IF13045 / 2025 Trustees · R-002

Both roads are about the gap between good and possible.

Every figure on this page is my own estimate unless it carries a gold source mark . My road-not-taken tables are in The Proposal.